Monster Rally to Begin the Year…2/19/2019

After one of the worst Decembers in market history and THE worst Christmas Eve trading day EVER, the market has put up some incredible return numbers to begin 2019. As I type this the S&P 500 is up over 10% year to date…and it is only February 19th!! If you annualize those numbers, you get 103%.

I think it is fair to say that it is highly unlikely that the market will posted gains of over 100% for the year. With this in mind, I expect a pullback at some point in the near future. Maybe after a trade deal with China is inked. Why? Well, it seems that every day we get news that trade negotiations are going well and the market moves higher. Before too long, all the good news could be priced into the market and there will be nowhere to go from there.

Regardless of why the market pulls back, I expect that it will. A 103% return for the market just seems unlikely to me for 2019. Nevertheless, we can have a VERY nice year this year.