Transitory Phase--2/9/2015


My work shows that we are still in the midst of a long-term Bull Market run.  However, I do believe that right now we are seeing a transition occurring.  Prior to now, most of the actions taking place benefited, at first, banks and then corporations, in general.  Interest rates were cut to extreme lows, so money was as close to free as it could be.  "Free" money makes most business projects feasible.  Unemployment was high, therefore supply of laborers was high as well.  With a surplus of workers to pick and choose from, wages remained low.  Combining these two facts set the stage for record profits among S&P 500 (and most other) companies.

However, right now the labor market is tightening and wages are beginning to grow.  This has led to a massive increase in Consumer Sentiment, but has also begun to pressure corporate earnings.  As the "cheap" pool of labor has started to evaporate.  

Nevertheless, this is still a benefit to the economy over the long-term.  More people, making more money, and feeling good about their situation should pave the road for long-term economic growth.  HOWEVER, short-term profits might get squeezed on the corporate level.  This squeeze could hit the stock price of companies that miss earnings, but companies that make their numbers should be rewarded handsomely.  

If Consumer Sentiment is high due to job growth and wage growth, what companies might do well on the earning front?  Answer that and you may have found a key to investment profitability during the Transitory Phase.