U.S. GDP Surprises on the Upside--7/31/2014


As I've been writing about for quite sometime, one of our biggest risks to this current Bull Market run is an economy that slips from expansion into recession.  After the negative 1st quarter GDP report, I had my eyes on all the economic data that has crossed since then.  Well, the 2nd quarter GDP numbers came in much higher than expected.  Some may see this as a sign that the economy is charging full steam ahead.  However, I simply see it as a normalization, or smoothing, of the numbers.  1st quarter was impacted by the terrible winter; demand was pent up; and this demand was unleashed in the 2nd quarter.  The economy appears to still be growing at a decent clip, but the booming recovery that some read into this number is simply not accurate, in my opinion.