Quarterly Client Newsletter

The market never sleeps and our next challenge is beginning to unfold right now. The 29.6% gain the S&P 500 posted in 2013 was great…but it is over.

We are moving on into 2014. And going into 2014 the economy seems to have some momentum behind it. The fact that the Fed is comfortable enough to begin tapering its bond buying program adds credence to that claim. Furthermore, a healthy US economy has proven to be a catalyst for the global economy. And these are very good things to have moving in the right direction.

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4th Quarter 2013 Client Newsletter

What we have been seeing since early 2009 is the precise recipe for a Bull Market; market participants talking about all the risks and problems while stocks rally and rally. The phrase used for this is that the market has been climbing the Wall of Worry. And through the end of the 3rd quarter, the S&P 500 has posted a gain of 19.79% on a total return basis during this climb.

Unfortunately, it has become standard operating procedure for the U.S. Government to create the issues that form the foundation for this Wall of Worry. And, of course, as I write this, they are doing it again. This time it is the Budget Debate and issues surrounding raising the Debt Ceiling and Health Care Reform. This should drive market volatility higher, which means we should see stocks experience drawdowns. But by keeping asset allocations in-line and cash at the ready, this could prove to be an opportunity for savvy investors.

Time will tell.

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3rd Quarter 2013 Client Newsletter

Although the S&P 500 began to show some volatility near the end of the 2nd quarter, the index still posted solid gains. For the quarter, it was up 2.91% on a total return basis. And at the end of the 2nd quarter, the posted total return number was 13.82% for the year.

As I’ve been discussing in a lot of my research, interest rates are going higher. This fact appears to be the main cause of the market’s volatility. However, it does appear that short-term rates are staying low and the rise in rates is focused more on the long-end of the curve. This has the effect of steepening the yield curve, which generally signals a healthy economy.

Time will tell on how all these moving pieces will shake out, but for now the markets are posting nice gains and the yield curve is getting steeper and, perhaps, more “normal.”

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2nd Quarter 2013 Client Newsletter

The S&P 500 is behaving like a freight-train, as of late.

This train registered a gain of 10.61% this quarter with the Health Care sector leading the way with its 15.22% gain. The Consumer Staples sector also posted a very nice return of 13.77%. In fact, all sectors showed positive returns. The “lagging” sector was Basic Materials and it showed a gain of 4.17%. To be quite frank, 4.17% is a really solid return, particularly in light of current interest rate levels.

There is no doubt in my mind that this generalized appreciation in the market is due to rising sentiment. The U of M Sentiment Survey is not registering an optimistic reading yet, but it is well off its lows. This could imply the market has further to run, but, regardless, we need to keep our eyes on market-related data and strive to stay ahead of this train.

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1st Quarter 2013 Client Newsletter