Final Stages of a Bull

Since 2018 marks the 20th year of my professional money management career, it seems fitting that this could prove to be the time frame that the market cycle comes full circle.

Anyone who follows my work knows that I believe the market has 3 distinct locations within a full cycle. Those locations are the Boom phase, the Bust phase, and the Consolidation phase. When I started managing money in the late 90s the markets where near the tail end of a Boom and now I think we have entered into that tail end phase again.

Read the full report: Final Stages of a Bull

A Brave New World

Readers of my work know that I have been talking about A Brave New World in my quarterly reports. What I mean by this moniker of “A Brave New World” is that we have put the Financial Crisis of 2008 firmly behind us and we are moving down a new path. In my opinion, this new path is being led by new global powerhouses and shifting global alliances. These new developments should push global profits to new highs and shift power from old, tried and true, countries to new, up-start, ones.

Through the coming pages I will detail:

  • Who these Powerhouses are,
  • What these new alliances are,
  • How high profits could go,
  • What to look for as this growth phase winds down.

Read the full report: A Brave New World

Deja Vu All Over Again

As I was driving down the road yesterday and listening to Business Talk Radio, a commentator mentioned something that reminded me of a report I wrote in February of 2009 entitled “The Beginning of the Bull…”

The commentator was talking about the incredible rally we have been witnessing in bank stocks recently. He said the driving force behind this rally was a belief that the economy was recovering and that Dodd-Frank might be repealed.

Read the full report: Deja Vu All Over Again

Earnings Recession

As readers of my research know, I track actual earnings versus potential earnings of the S&P 500 with the potential earnings being derived from the nominal GDP figures. I put this data into chart form in an attempt to see how likely it is earnings will appreciate or depreciate in the future.

Back in the first quarter of 2015, I began talking about earnings being unsustainably high. Due to this, I moved from an over-weight position regarding equities to an under-weight position.

Now my work shows that earnings appear to be bottoming out. Throughout this report, I will talk about the potential market ramifications of earning’s moves like this and discuss my previous market comments.

Read the full report: Earnings Recession

2016 – The Year Ahead

Prior to the beginning of a new calendar year, I try to get my ducks in a row for what might happen in the coming year. I find it helpful to review the current years performance and trends, as that is usually helpful in finding opportunities. And I also like to look at the indicators I follow, to get grip on the “mood of the market” and the fundamental and quantitative underpinnings of the market. And finally, I try to piece all of the clues together to try to come to some conclusion on how the market’s movements might play out by year’s end.

Read the full report: 2016 – The Year Ahead

Transition

In my opinion, “The Powers That Be” took actions to save the banking system. If any other benefits trickled down to the broader economy, including individuals, that was fine…but the banking system had to be saved. And I feel that this modus operandi has continued to dominate the financial landscape; UNTIL NOW!

Read the full report: Transition

Market Outlook

I have a macro-model that I use to gauge where the market is in relation to where is should be. One of the first steps in the process of understanding where we “should” be is to look at a long-term chart of the S&P 500. I was a bit flabbergasted when I recently took a peek at this chart. The chart is pictured below, tell me if you feel the same way I did.

Read the full report: Market Outlook 11/24/2014