Given the recent circumstances in the markets, we thought we should update our reports “A Bear Hunt” and “Don’t Fight The Fed” with data that has come out since the reports were written back in 2013-2014. As we enter another Fed rate hiking cycle, we learn what to look out for and how to prepare.
Read the full report: Tracking The Bear
It seems everywhere you look these days people are talking about bitcoin and cryptocurrency. Despite everyone talking about it, no one really seems to know much about it. Given that the returns being generated on it are so wild, we think it is a good time to dig deep into the cryptocurrency markets.
Read the full report: Cryptocurrency
“To be at peace with your position in the Capital Markets, you must put in constant and diligent effort to comprehend what makes the markets move”
Read the full report: Liquidity
Since 2018 marks the 20th year of my professional money management career, it seems fitting that this could prove to be the time frame that the market cycle comes full circle.
Anyone who follows my work knows that I believe the market has 3 distinct locations within a full cycle. Those locations are the Boom phase, the Bust phase, and the Consolidation phase. When I started managing money in the late 90s the markets where near the tail end of a Boom and now I think we have entered into that tail end phase again.
Read the full report: Final Stages of a Bull
Before we get into this report, I want to formally state that I do think the market has quite a bit of room to run to the upside. However, I see one thing that could eventually put an end to this Bull run.
Read the full report: Central Bank Hubris
Readers of my work know that I have been talking about A Brave New World in my quarterly reports. What I mean by this moniker of “A Brave New World” is that we have put the Financial Crisis of 2008 firmly behind us and we are moving down a new path. In my opinion, this new path is being led by new global powerhouses and shifting global alliances. These new developments should push global profits to new highs and shift power from old, tried and true, countries to new, up-start, ones.
Through the coming pages I will detail:
- Who these Powerhouses are,
- What these new alliances are,
- How high profits could go,
- What to look for as this growth phase winds down.
Read the full report: A Brave New World
As I was driving down the road yesterday and listening to Business Talk Radio, a commentator mentioned something that reminded me of a report I wrote in February of 2009 entitled “The Beginning of the Bull…”
The commentator was talking about the incredible rally we have been witnessing in bank stocks recently. He said the driving force behind this rally was a belief that the economy was recovering and that Dodd-Frank might be repealed.
Read the full report: Deja Vu All Over Again
As readers of my research know, I track actual earnings versus potential earnings of the S&P 500 with the potential earnings being derived from the nominal GDP figures. I put this data into chart form in an attempt to see how likely it is earnings will appreciate or depreciate in the future.
Back in the first quarter of 2015, I began talking about earnings being unsustainably high. Due to this, I moved from an over-weight position regarding equities to an under-weight position.
Now my work shows that earnings appear to be bottoming out. Throughout this report, I will talk about the potential market ramifications of earning’s moves like this and discuss my previous market comments.
Read the full report: Earnings Recession
Prior to the beginning of a new calendar year, I try to get my ducks in a row for what might happen in the coming year. I find it helpful to review the current years performance and trends, as that is usually helpful in finding opportunities. And I also like to look at the indicators I follow, to get grip on the “mood of the market” and the fundamental and quantitative underpinnings of the market. And finally, I try to piece all of the clues together to try to come to some conclusion on how the market’s movements might play out by year’s end.
Read the full report: 2016 – The Year Ahead
Whew!!! That last few months have seen some crazy market movements…but yet, WE’VE GONE NOWHERE!
Read the full report: The Whipsaw