Understanding a Bull Market

Given that our current market has appreciated over 100% from the lows it made in early 2009, I wanted to reach out to clients to discuss the history of previous Bull Markets and how historical precedent might impact our current market.

  • After a brief introduction, I will offer some background information on previous Bull Markets.
  • Then our current market will be discussed.
  • Finally, I will offer some ideas on potential future market movements.

Read the full report: Understanding a Bull Market


Over the past 8 years, we’ve seen the market go through many phases and in our newsletters and research reports we’ve named these cycles and market movements. Recently we’ve seen the “rebalancing” and the “consolidation” to name a few. Right now, however, we are in the beginning of a new cycle that I’ll dub “normalization.”

This normalization process is occurring now and will most likely un-do the extreme pricing irregularities that have been forced upon the market through efforts to rescue the world’s economies from the dire situations they faced as part of the 2008 crisis. Some of these irregularities came about from overt and purposeful efforts, while some arose as unintended consequences relative to those actions.

Like all long-term secular trends, this process of normalization will not be an overnight knee-jerk reaction. Rather, little by little, day by day, quarter by quarter, I expect to see the following irregularities begin to reverse themselves.

Read the full report: Normalization

Investment Thoughts

My investment process is a Top-Down meets Bottom-Up style. With a focus on Behavioral Finance being used on the Top-Down portion of the analysis and intense cash flow analysis supporting the Bottom-Up side of the equation. In my research reports, a lot of my published pieces are centered around the Top-Down aspects of the market. This is intentional. I believe that understanding the market’s general direction can have massive implications on the overall returns of portfolios. Additionally, the macro-economic environment has been in such an historically interesting position for the last 5+ years, that a constant eye needed to be placed on it.

However, my work now suggests that we are entrenched in a Secular Bull Market. And, yes, I’ve been writing about that for quite some time.   One of the main twists that my work has unveiled regarding Secular Bull Markets is the recurring Cyclical Bear Markets that occur within these longer-term cycles. Savvy investors can use these pull backs to enhance their long-term returns.

It is with this mindset that I am writing this report. That is, what are some areas that savvy investors should be keeping an eye on in regards to potential placement of investment dollars during our current market cycle.

Please click on the link below for the report.

Investment Thoughts