A Euphoric Transition of the Markets
Additionally, we see two new issues developing. The first is inflationary pressures, which are well known and discussed in the markets. The other is supply chain issues. Those issues are as visible as semiconductor production shortages. And as opaque as shortages of willing labor to unload cargo ships. But these issues are not garnering too many headlines at this point. We expect that to change.
See Full Report: Q3 2021 Client Newsletter
An Emerging Development in the Economy
Evolution and innovation is seen in every aspect of the financial world. But isn’t the financial world considered to — make the world go round? The changes in behavior of consumerism especially after the pandemic are noticeably affecting the markets and the way we exchange goods.
See Full Report: Q2 2021 Client Newsletter
We think 2021 will be a year of consistent market gains. The Fed and the Treasury have made it clear that they will do whatever it takes to ensure that asset prices are stable, if not appreciating. Surely, we’ve all heard the saying “Don’t fight the Fed.” Market participants have been saying those words for multiple generations. Make no mistake about it, there is a reason for that. When the Fed is on your side, they can make the game a lot easier to win.
See Full Report: Q1 2021 Client Newsletter
Heading into 2021, there are still some uncertainties regarding how all of moving pieces of the global economy will fit together and we certainly do have a lot to worry about. But Bull Markets are said to “climb a wall of worry.”
The fact that the Fed and the Treasury appear to be working seamlessly together to stabilize and inflate asset prices, gives us a lot of confidence that the direction of the markets should be upward biased for the new year. But, of course, volatility will rear its head through out the year. Which is why we allocate assets according to everyone’s risk tolerance and financial needs.
Happy New Year!
See Full Report: 4th Quarter 2020 Client Newsletter
In keeping with the theme of 2020, the 3rd quarter was a wild ride. The S&P 500 rallied about 14% in price during the first two months of the quarter and then pulled back about 10% during the month of September. To end the quarter, it settled up a little more than 4% for the year to date.
But what is the most fascinating aspect of those data points is the continuing disparity between the returns of the indices. I can’t re- member a time when the returns of various benchmarks were so wildly different, as we discussed in the last newsletter. For example, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ended the 3rd quarter with a year to date price change of –2.08%, the S&P Global index was –1.01%, the small cap index was –17.6%, while a handful of tech stocks have propelled the NASDAQ well into positive territory.
What will happen next in 2020? Frankly, not much would surprise us. But the election is close at hand and we’ve got a Supreme Court nomination in the confirmation process. Buckle up! It should be a wild ride.
See Full Report: 3rd Quarter 2020 Client Newsletter
As quickly as the market fell late last quarter, it rose almost as rapidly this quarter. We had mentioned in the last Capital Market Update that “Generally, with little data to work with, the market prices in extreme scenarios. We will see if this is the case this time.”
Indeed, it appears that is exactly what happened. The S&P 500 for the quarter rose over 20% and at the close of the 2nd quarter the price change of the S&P stood at –4.04%.
As we progress, we have a lot of issues to sort out in the market. When everyone gets this newsletter we will be in the midst of earnings season and it seems to us that in regards to what companies will actually earn moving forward, will be anybody’s guess. That is what makes this earnings season so important. It will highlight what company’s business models have the wherewithal to function in a rapidly changing economy.
See Full Report: 2nd Quarter 2020 Client Newsletter
In the blink of an eye the market went from an incredible 2019 that ended with a great 4th quarter to one of the worst quarters in the history of the market. In fact, from it’s peak to its trough this quarter, the market fell over 35% and, according to the Standard and Poor’s website, the S&P 500 fell 20% for the entire quarter.
As we discussed in the last newsletter, we were of the mindset that 2020 would be a volatile year given that it is a Presidential election year. However, the timing of the volatility was pulled forward due to the outbreak of the Coronavirus. And the severity of it was ramped way up because of the speed at which the pandemic spread across the world.
Moving forward everyone is awaiting to see the economic impact of the world’s response to the virus, which was, essentially, to shut most economic activity down. Everyone knows that the data will be bad, we just don’t know how bad it will be. And there is no question with a 35% peak to trough drawdown, the market is pricing in some awful data.
About the time everyone gets this newsletter, the data should be rolling in and we will have some good data to work with. Generally, with little data to work with, the market prices in extreme scenarios. We will see if this is the case this time.
Please click on the link below for the full report.
1st Quarter 2020 Client Newsletter
In the last newsletter, we discussed how the “pump was primed” for a good run in the markets. As it turned out, the S&P 500 price change for the quarter was 8.53%. Which brings the final year to date price change for the market to 28.88%. No matter how you want to analyze those numbers, they are terrific. It was a BIG year for the stock market.
Please click on the link below for the report.
4th Quarter 2019 Client Newsletter
Despite some fairly decent up and down market gyrations for the quarter, the S&P 500 price change was +1.19% . However, that puts the year to date price change for the market at +18.74% as of the end of the quarter. Quite frankly any time the market is up that much, it’s a pretty darn good year (but we are only 3/4 of the way through the year so far).
We do believe that this is one of the most hated Bull Markets of all time, for reasons we will dig into in the coming articles.
Please click the link below to read the full report.
3rd Quarter 2019 Client Newsletter
Over time, the stock market has posted returns in excess of most other asset classes but you have to endure uncertainty. Investors, naturally, want to get compensated for that bumpy ride. This year has been a perfect example of getting paid for staying invested during the volatile times. Year to date the price change of the S&P 500 is 17.35%. If you annualize those numbers, you get close to a 40% return on your money for this calendar year alone.
Historically speaking, this has been the best start to a year in the S&P 500 since 1997 and it was the best June in the Dow since 1938. And, frankly, that is all well and good, but the key to realizing those returns is making it through the tough times, like we saw in May when the S&P fell 6.6% in that month alone.
Please click on the link below for the full report.
2nd Quarter 2019 Client Newsletter