Quarterly Client Newsletter

Despite some fairly decent up and down market gyrations for the quarter, the S&P 500 price change was +1.19% . However, that puts the year to date price change for the market at +18.74% as of the end of the quarter. Quite frankly any time the market is up that much, it’s a pretty darn good year (but we are only 3/4 of the way through the year so far).

We do believe that this is one of the most hated Bull Markets of all time, for reasons we will dig into in the coming articles.

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3rd Quarter 2019 Client Newsletter

Over time, the stock market has posted returns in excess of most other asset classes but you have to endure uncertainty. Investors, naturally, want to get compensated for that bumpy ride. This year has been a perfect example of getting paid for staying invested during the volatile times. Year to date the price change of the S&P 500 is 17.35%. If you annualize those numbers, you get close to a 40% return on your money for this calendar year alone.

Historically speaking, this has been the best start to a year in the S&P 500 since 1997 and it was the best June in the Dow since 1938. And, frankly, that is all well and good, but the key to realizing those returns is making it through the tough times, like we saw in May when the S&P fell 6.6% in that month alone.

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2nd Quarter 2019 Client Newsletter

In the 4th quarter of 2018, we said; “I do truly believe when the dust settles a lot of these fears ruling the market today will turn out to be unfounded and never actually materialize. Per my analysis, it does look like there is significant upside to the markets when things settle down. But until then, we need to do the best we can with the cards we have been dealt.”

In the 1st quarter, the S&P got off to the best start to a year since 1998. In fact, the price appreciation for the market was 13.07%.   With this, it does appear that the fears that overwhelmed the market in the 4th quarter of 2018 got ahead of themselves and pushed the market down past a rational valuation level.

The question moving forward will focus on how high can the market go while the rate of earnings growth is slowing?

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1st Quarter 2019 Client Newsletter

The S&P 500 ended the 3rd quarter in good shape and usually the 4th quarter is pretty decent with a “Santa Claus” rally to end the year. However, this year Santa left us all a lump of coal! In fact, in December alone the price change on the S&P 500 was –9.18% and for the 4th quarter it was down 13.97%.   All in all, this terrible quarter ended up pulling the entire market down for the year. The price change on the S&P 500 for the year ended up being –6.24%.

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4th Quarter 2018 Client Newsletter

We seemed to be treading water for most of the year…until this quarter came along. Last newsletter we talked about how earnings were booming, but the market was only going sideways. I reminded everyone that type of scenario creates an under-valued market and it is like a powder keg with a lit fuse; eventually it will explode. And it did last quarter.

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3rd Quarter 2018 Client Newsletter

This quarter saw the S&P 500 rebound and post a price change of 2.93% for the quarter. All in all, that brings the change in the price of the market for the year to 1.67%. Not huge gains by any stretch of the imagination, but, like we’ve been talking about for quite some time, we should be in a grinding/sideways market until after the November elections.

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2nd Quarter 2018 Client Newsletter

Finally this market pulled back. After a record setting run to the upside with almost no downside volatility post-election 2016, this market had a negative quarter. For the record, the S&P 500 price change was –1.22% for the quarter. This is hardly a catastrophe, but after a rip roaring run, capped by a euphoric January, the sell off did fray a lot of nerves.

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1st Quarter 2018 Client Newsletter

KABOOM!!!! The 4th quarter showing nothing but a continuation of one of the greatest years in stock market history. For the quarter, the price change in the S&P 500 was 6.12%. And this makes the annual price appreciation 1942% for the market. However simply looking at the returns alone doesn’t tell the entire story.

Please click on the link below for the full report.

4th Quarter 2017 Client Newsletter

As I mentioned in the last Update, there were a lot of things that could rattle the markets; Congressional stumbles, Presidential faux pas, and North Korean antics. And we got all of those, and more, but the market kept moving higher. All of those items did cause the markets to demonstrate increased volatility, but, nevertheless, the S&P 500’s price change for the quarter was +3.96%. And this brought the year to date change to +12.53%.

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3rd Quarter 2017 Client Newsletter

Even with all the craziness going on in the world right now, the S&P 500 put up some very solid performance in the 2nd quarter. The price change in the market was 2.74% in the quarter, which brings the year-to-date appreciation through the end of the quarter to 8.27%.

This appreciation in the market was achieved despite a little more volatility in the market, as compared to the 1st quarter. But, nevertheless, nice gains were made.

Looking ahead, there are plenty of things that could make the markets jump around; Congressional stumbles, Presidential faux pas, North Korean antics. But on a fundamental basis, things do look pretty promising. I flesh out the “pretty promising” comment in more detail in the “Signal Through the Noise” article.

As always, the market can throw us curveballs from time to time and we are always on alert for that possibility.

Please click on the link below for the full report.

2nd Quarter 2017 Client Newsletter